Jobs report for February was weaker than expected, which is concerning because this report doesn’t account for the recent government job cuts from DOGE, so it suggests that businesses are taking a pause on hiring until there is more certainties about tariff policy and the economic outlook.10-year Treasury yield rises after weaker-than-expected jobs growth.

The shadow of a U.S. economic recession is growing longer and darkening the outlook for both consumers and CFOs alike, according to various surveys tracking sentiment in March.

Also consumers are increasingly losing confidence amid more policy uncertainties. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. It’s also lower than the 93.5 reading expected in a Dow Jones survey of economists. The measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession.

On the flip side, fears of a downturn on the horizon. Around 60% of CFOs expect a U.S. recession in the second half of the year. A separate Deutsche Bank survey found that the probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, going by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20. U.S. Treasury yields dropped accordingly with investors seeking safety as fears of an economic slowdown grew.

The U.S. occupies such a central role in the global financial and economic system that if a recession were to happen, it would undoubtedly have widespread repercussions.

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