Glebors Global Finance has always advocated the entrepreneurial spirit of pioneering, adventurous and hardworking. Relying on the unique perspective, Glebors has launched various special issues in terms of the economy and finance, which has provided much more assistance to government decision-makers and business leaders.
IF characterizing China's economic outlook for 2026 accurately, that is opportunities and challenges coincide, with weak recovery along with strong structure.
In terms of GDP growth expectations, institutions generally provide a forecast range of 4.4% to 4.8%, which is overall optimistic and higher than the market's prior expectations.
As the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, China's economy is in a pivotal period of transformation characterized by "stablize real estate and push technology aggressively". Based on research reports and predictions from globally institutions, the growth trajectory, core driving forces and potential risks for 2026 have been outlined respectively.
Regarding the expected GDP growth, the general forecast range is 4.4% to 4.8%, which is generally optimistic and higher than the market's previous expectations. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are most proactive , both raising their growth rates to 4.8%. Goldman Sachs believes that the resilience of annual export growth rate of 5% to 6% and policy support for high-end manufacturing will become the core driving forces, and the growth rate can still reach 4.7% in 2027. Morgan Stanley keeps somewhat cautious that with a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.1% for the whole year, noting that deflationary pressure will still persist. UBS has given a baseline forecast of 4.5%, while JP Morgan Chase has raised it to 4.4%, and pointed out that the economy will show a trend of being high in the first half and stable in the second half. The frontload fiscal in the first quarter may drive the growth rate to rise.
The growth engine during the transition period has been fully shifted, one of which is high-end manufacturing and exports. By 2025, China's actual export growth rate has reached 8%. Products such as EVs and AI computing power equipment exports are highly competitive and will serve as economic backbone. China will sustain the ride in 2026 and highlight the importance in its economic agenda. The second part is the new infrastructure during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Underground pipeline renovation, green infrastructure, and the construction of AI computing data centers have become core points of growth.
The new economy has contributed 25% of the GDP growth. The third aspect is consumption and livelihood. Targeted supportive policies which is worth 600 billion yuan will be implemented, noting a clear emphasis on integrating AI into consumer products development and services, but the common sense is that the recovery of consumption under the high savings rate will still be incremental and gradual.
Risks still persist and should not be ignored in 2026. The trade tension between China and US is the major uncertainty overhanging there. It is possible to further escalate in terms of the high tariffs of 30% to 60% and the barriers of trade diversion. The weakness of real estate will also persist, investment for the whole year may decline by 5% to 10%, and its drag on GDP will narrow somewhat. Nevertheless, the ongoing pressure of inventory reduction still needs time to digest.
In terms of the capital market, Nomura Securities is quite optimistic about the MSCI China Index, expecting a 10% increase for the foreseeable future, suggesting investing in the themes of AI, new energy, undervalued cyclical stocks and high-dividend targets. Morgan Stanley believes that 2026 will be A "stable year" for the A-share market, noting that it is necessary to focus on high-quality stocks in the fields of technology breakthroughs and consumption recovery.
China's economy is at a pivotal and transformational period, which is one hand backed by strong performance from exports and infrastructure, but also faces persisting pressure from external frictions and weak domestic consumption. We believe the year of 2026 will not be a year of surging growth for China's economy, but rather a year of shaking off some of the weakness and building up momentum.
Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
Glebors Financial Become an Glebors subscriberMake informed decisions with the Glebors.Keep abreast of significant corporate, financial and political developments around the world. Stay informed and spot emerging risks and opportunities with independent global reporting, expert commentary and analysis you can trust.
"Insight of the global economy, dig into more ideas, analyze the global financial dynamics and the risks of political situation from a strategic, scientific and rational perspective, based on economic data and more than 20 years of financial intelligence."
If you want to know more details to provide support for your investment and business activities, this financial report that we have selected for you can give you what you want, please subscribe to read it. Glebors Global Finance aims to provide business elites and decision makers with daily business news, data interpretation, in-depth analysis and commentary.
Glebors Global Finance’s amount of financial information digs into deeply major events and economic data that have a huge impact on the global economy, based on in-depth industrial research and special reports, with a truly global perspective。 Financial reports have become "must-read" financial information for senior managers. Gribs Global Finance currently has more than2.85 million Chinese readers and more than 3.5 million overseas readers, including more than 600,000 high-end member readers.
